The Sunday Question: Slavery Counterfactuals

Reader Bob Nelson has suggested that readers of this blog might well want to contemplate some counterfactuals concerning slavery and the Civil War. ¬†First, he wants to know what people think as to when slavery would have ended in the United States had there been no Civil War. Second, he wants to know when slavery would have ended had the Confederacy won. I’ll simply note that in both cases an implied assumption is that slavery was doomed, and it was just a matter to time before it collapsed, regardless of what happened; I’ll leave aside other problematic aspects of this line of inquiry and its implications.

The floor is open.